Boldson Herdianto Situmorang, Arie Qur Ania, Dian Asri Sukmawati

Judul	:	The Application of Prediction of Cocoa Yields with Exponential Smoothing Method
Abstrak	:	— Cocoa is the one of Indonesia superior comodities from agricultural sector, besides oil palm and rubber which contribute the foreign exchange for the country in the amount of US$ 1,05 billion from export of cocoa seed and cocoa product in 2012 [1]. Caused by cocoa plant is concidered important for Indonesia economic matters, a system of prediction of cocoa yields is needed to minimize the decrease of cocoa yields in every year. The prediction may be used of various calculation methods, among others by analysis method of Exponential Smoothing–a prediction method of moving average by weighting where data is weighted by an exponential function [2]. This research has purpose to design and develop an application which can be used to predict the cocoa yields by Exponential Smoothing method so that can help the government and farmers to predict cocoa yields per annum. The development of this application will be limited by calculation of statistics to predict the cocoa yields base on data in previous year. The data which will be used in this research is the secondary data which were from Research Institute for Industrial Plants, that are data of cocoa yields from 2008 to 2012. The development of the application is using softwares with XAMPP, PHP, and MySQL.  The prediction of cocoa yields in 2013 at significance level  0,5 is 17.885 Kg and it is the prediction result with the minimum value of MSE (Mean Square Error) 4.209. After this, the results of prediction of cocoa yields per quarterly has been a little bit change in the certain seasons. For the validation in calculation of MAPD (Mean Absolute Percentage Definition) the Exponential Smoothing is exactly accurate in MAPD value at significance level 0,1 with the confidence interval 99,427 percent, at significance level 0,3 with the confidence interval 99,86 percent, and at significance level 0,5 with the confidence interval 99,57 percent.
Tahun	:	2015	Media Publikasi	:	Prosiding
Kategori	:	Prosiding	No/Vol/Tahun	:	- / - / 2015
ISSN/ISBN	:	2461-1328
PTN/S	:	Universitas Pakuan	Program Studi	:	ILMU KOMPUTER
Bibliography	:	[1] F. Ahmad. “Kakao komoditi andalan Indonesia”, 2013. [2] M. Spyros.“Metode dan Aplikasi Peramalan”, Erlangga, 2007. [3] P. Subagyo.“Forecasting : Konsep dan Aplikasi”, BPFE Yogyakarta, 2007. [4] S. Rahma. “Analisa trend dan forecasting”, Modul 8, 2013. [5] D. Martisunu.“Statistik time series”, Modul 5, 2012.
URL	:	http://elektro.um.ac.id/ceie/2015/proceeding